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Feb 11, 2026
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WATCH
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Tensions with Iran are high; Trump may strike, but analysts predict "managed escalation" rather than total war. A "managed escalation" implies a short-term spike in oil prices followed by a reversion to the mean as supply chains adapt. It is not a structural bull market for oil, but a volatility trade. WATCH. Buy the rumor of war, sell the news of "managed" conflict. Strait of Hormuz closure (low probability, high impact) would send oil to $100+. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130K Jobs, Sec. Wright Visits Venezue...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Oil is currently trading just below $65/barrel. The analyst outlines two scenarios: a "likely" managed escalation causing a "brief spike," or an "extreme" scenario where Iran strikes energy infrastructure and closes the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to "skyrocket." With WTI Crude at $65, the market is pricing in a high probability of peace or oversupply. Both scenarios presented by the analyst involve price appreciation—either a tactical spike (base case) or a massive repricing event (bull case). There is little downside priced in for a geopolitical risk premium at these levels. LONG Energy as an asymmetric hedge. If the "managed escalation" occurs, you catch the spike; if the "extreme" case hits, it protects the portfolio against a global economic crash. A rapid, surprise diplomatic breakthrough where Trump lifts sanctions without escalation, leading to a flood of Iranian supply. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Still Hopes to Have ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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The US is officially planning to send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Trump is "sending so many military capabilities to the region to ensure that Israel is properly defended." The deployment of carrier strike groups and the explicit commitment to defending Israel implies high operational tempo and the consumption/deployment of defense hardware (interceptors, munitions, logistics). Even if the goal is deterrence, the hardware is being moved and utilized, benefiting the defense industrial base. LONG Defense sector as the beneficiary of the "credible military threat" strategy. A sudden de-escalation or US withdrawal of assets if negotiations succeed immediately. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Tells Netanyahu He Still Hopes to Have ...
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